The optimism surrounding Tulane’s football program this summer does not extend to the major preseason magazines.
Phil Steele’s College Football Preview and Lindy’s predict the Green Wave will finish fifth of six teams in the American Athletic Conference West, while Athlon Sports places the Wave fourth behind Memphis, Navy and Houston.
On paper, the skepticism makes sense. Tulane does not have that many proven upperclassmen, the result of back-to-back recruiting classes that tanked at the end of the Curtis Johnson era and the beginning of Willie Fritz’ tenure.
This is familiar territory for anyone who follows the team closely, but it bears repeating. Of the 17 players who signed under CJ in 2015, only six remain, and just two of them are certain contributors next fall—safety Roderic Teamer and offensive tackle Keyshawn McLeod. The others are incumbent punter Zach Block, who has a tenuous hold on his role after three up-and-mostly-down years, backup safety Taris Shenall, who missed most of spring drills with academic concerns, running back/special teams performer Devin Glenn, who is no sure bet to fulfill the promise he exhibited in the spring after three inconsequential seasons on offense, and offensive lineman Brian Webb, a non-factor.
Of the 23 players who signed in 2016, a month after Fritz was hired and before he could get a good feel for the players he was recruiting, 10 are gone—quarterback Johnathan Brantley, running backs A.J. Walker and Miles Strickland, wide receiver Chris Johnson, offensive lineman Phabion Woodard, defensive backs Tre Jackson, Eric Lewis and Chase Napoleon and defensive ends Deion Rainey and Jonathan Wilson.
The mass departures limited the pool of familiar players available for preseason all-conference honors, which is one of the key tools outside observers use to rank teams. Phil Steele, who follows teams more closely than probably any of the other magazines, had zero Wave players on his first-team offense or defense, leaving long snapper Geron Eatherly as Tulane’s only representative. Steele had only two Wave guys on his second team—defensive lineman Cameron Sample and South Alabama offensive lineman transfer Noah Fisher—and two players on his third team—wide receiver Terren Encalade and offensive lineman Corey Dublin.
In contrast, Steele put four Tulsa players on his first team even though the Golden Hurricane went 2-10 last year. Memphis, his pick to win the West, has five players on the first team.
Athlon’s placed cornerback Donnie Lewis on its second team but no one else, tying the Wave with East Carolina and one ahead of Connecticut, the league’s two bottom feeders. Everyone else in the West had at least four players on the first or second team.
None of this will mean anything once the season starts, but the attrition of the two classes that comprise the third-and fourth-year players makes Tulane’s margin for error small. The Wave will need a huge year from quarterback Jonathan Banks, who did not even make Steele’s fourth team but is talented enough to light up opponents. The season could go south in a hurry if he gets hurt with no proven backup on the roster.
Tulane also will need smooth transitions for running backs Darius Bradwell, who is still learning the nuances of his position after beginning his career at quarterback, and Texas Tech transfer Corey Dauphine. The departed Dontrell Hilliard was really good, and Fritz was not happy with the pad level of the returning backs in the spring game.
Fisher needs to be as productive as Steele projects as he makes the jump from the lower-level Sun Belt to the AAC. If he is, it will mitigate the blow of losing center Junior Diaz to Florida Atlantic.
The defense, which was average last year despite having terrific cornerback Parry Nickerson, needs to get better without him and leading tackler Rae Juan Marbley. P.J. Hall’s move to safety in the spring appeared to pay off in a big way, but Lewis needs to play to his talent level after making too many mistakes the past two years. Coaches and teammates love him, and it is time for him to live up to their praise.
The line should be stronger after struggling against the run (210 yards. 5.4 average), with Sample a year older, Jeffery Johnson helping out in the middle and Robert Kennedy healthy from the start.
The overall speed on defense has improved, but I have felt like that before and been proven wrong once the year went along.
The schedule could be problematic. Phil Steele does not project win totals, but he points out Tulane could be an underdog as many as nine times, presumably excluding Nicholls State and home games against SMU and East Carolina but including trips to UAB and Cincinnati.
Wake Forest at home is a winnable opener, but Tulane has not beaten a team from a current Power Five conference since Rutgers in 2010. That game will set the tone for a season that could go either way, but I expect the Wave to beat the Demon Deacons for a reason that has nothing to do with returning starters or recent history or blind optimism.
Fritz and his staff are good coaches. In their third year at Tulane, they are ready for a breakthrough. Obviously, the Wave could have gone 6-6 a year ago, but for all the (deserved) agonizing about the way the referees in the SMU game cost the Wave a bowl bid on the last play against SMU, Tulane was fortunate to beat Army and East Carolina and did not look like a postseason-worthy team for most of the year.
There are plenty of reasons to forecast another losing record, but Fritz will not let it happen if Banks stays healthy this fall. Tulane’s offense will be exponentially better in Fritz’ third season, particularly on third downs, taking some pressure off the defense.
Tulane likely has too many question marks to win the West, but when Navy arrives at Yulman Stadium on Nov. 24, the Wave already will have locked up its third bowl bid of the millennium. This time, the Wave will be playing for a better destination rather than a .500 regular season.
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